I am trying to do panel threshold regression developed by Hansen(1999). Our dependent variable is economic growth while our independent variables are labour force, gross capital formation, inflation rate, total land area and trade openness. And our threshold variable and regime dependent variable is external debt to GDP ratio and external debt. When I run the threshold regression I got the following result. Based on the threshold effect test the model does not have a threshold value because the RSS is less than any of the critical values. According to this result, the model is linear, not non-linear. Having said this I have the following questions
1. is our model specification correct especially the threshold variable and the regime dependent variable?
2. According to Hansen(1999) threshold effect test if the model does not have threshold B1 = B2 but, in our case, the threshold effect test showed me no threshold effect but the beta value is different. In this case how to interpret the two betas and how to interpret the effect of external debt on economic growth in our model.
PHP Code:
xthreg g l a k opp i , rx( DebtGDP ) qx( D ) thnum(1) grid(400)trim(0.01) bs(300)
Estimating the threshold parameters: 1st ...... Done
Boostrap for single threshold
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Threshold estimator (level = 95):
model Threshold Lower Upper
Th-1 22.3286 22.2560 22.3389
Threshold effect test (bootstrap = 300):
Threshold RSS MSE Fstat Prob Crit10 Crit5 Crit1
Single 32.2469 0.0448 74.74 0.0767 67.1511 83.4262 107.4726
Fixed-effects (within) regression Number of obs = 738
Group variable: country Number of groups = 41
R-sq: within = 0.8471 Obs per group: min = 18
between = 0.2962 avg = 18.0
overall = 0.2378 max = 18
F(7,690) = 546.21
corr(u_i, Xb) = -0.9914 Prob > F = 0.0000
g Coef. Std. Err. t P>t [95% Conf. Interval]
l 1.931645 .0806895 23.94 0.000 1.773219 2.090071
a -5.830976 2.001644 -2.91 0.004 -9.76102 -1.900932
k .2711044 .0178865 15.16 0.000 .2359859 .3062229
opp -.1428224 .0297305 -4.80 0.000 -.2011954 -.0844493
i 1.91e-07 .0003268 0.00 1.000 -.0006415 .0006419
_cat#c.DebtGDP
0 -.0004341 .0001691 -2.57 0.010 -.0007662 -.0001021
1 -.003356 .0003512 -9.56 0.000 -.0040455 -.0026665
_cons 59.16148 24.48589 2.42 0.016 11.08568 107.2373
sigma_u 9.8258185
sigma_e .21673881
rho .99951368 (fraction of variance due to u_i)
F test that all u_i=0: F(40, 690) = 60.55 Prob > F = 0.0000
Thank you
Ermiyas;
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