Dear Stata Experts:

I am working on a project to predict state policy on a particular issue. The objective is more to predict state policy rather than find causal relationships between x and y.

My policy outcome variable has 5 choices, coded from 0 - 4. I am using 0 as the base outcome. I have 10 years of panel data but many of the variables change very slowly over time.

My initial hunch were to use the following models:

1) multinomial logit - since this is not a panel estimator I would have to limit this to a cross-sectional model with only 50 states which I think would be a problem. I am not sure if I can use the panel data as a "pooled" data without significant problems. Grateful for any advice on this.

Also, I was planning on using state and year dummies if I was able to use panel data.

2) xtologit: I could also use the random effects model. I could potentially argue that the outcomes are ordered but I was hoping to avoid this assumption.

3) gesem, mlogit: I am learning about this program right now and it seems promising. Does this seem like an appropriate option? Also, does gsem with mlogit allow me to predict outcome probabilities?

4) I was also advised to look into mixed methods. Any suggestions?

Grateful for any insight on the different choices I have.

Thanks.

SAM