I have a short panel consisting of T=12 and N=150, and have settled on using Mr. Roodman's xtabond2 suite of estimators, namely the first differenced GMM estimator proposed by Arellano and Bond (1991), as well as the expanded system GMM estimator by Blundell and Bond (1998). I have succesfully estimated the parameters of an AR(1) panel data model for the first nine periods - using both estimators - and am now looking to apply them in out-of-sample forecasts for the remaining three periods.
In the case of a simple AR(1) panel data model, stated as
yit = ayi,t-1 + ui + vit ,
the optimal predictor at time t = T + K should be the expectation of yi,T+k conditional on the information set IT = (y,a,u,v), stated as
yi,T+k | T = E[ yi,T+k | IT ] = E[ ayi,T+k-1 + ui + vi,T+k | IT ] = ayi,T+k-1 + ui .
Because the expectation of future shocks of the idiosyncratic error term vit is assumed to zero, it is expunged through the conditional expectation - however, the fixed effect term ui remains. I am confused as to how I can implement the fixed effect in the forecast. Contrary to xtreg, Mr. Roodman's xtabond2 does not return a fixed effect estimate for either of the aforementioned estimators in the postestimation. Currently, I can produce forecasts with the command
Code:
forecast est y forecast solve, pre(f_) begin(tm(2018m10))
Code:
forecast est y forecast adjust y = y + u forecast solve, pre(f_) begin(tm(2018m10))
Thank you for your time.
Citations:
Arellano, M. and Bond, S. (1991). Some tests of specification for panel data: Monte carlo evidence and an application to employment equations. The Review of Economic Studies, 58(194).
Blundell, R. and Bond, S. (1998). Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models. Journal of Econometrics, 87(1):115–143.
Roodman, D. (2009). How to do xtabond2: An introduction to difference and system GMM in Stata. Stata Journal, 9(1):86–136.
Liu, L., Moon, H., and Schorfheide, F. (2018). Forecasting with dynamic panel data models NBER Working Paper Series.
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