Hello,

I am running a panel data analysis to examine the effect of Geographic Diversification (quadratic) on Firm Performance (winsorized ROA.) I find that Geographic Diversification (quadratic) has a significant effect on Firm Performance. However, when I add an interaction term for Crisis (i.e. Global Financial Crisis 2007-2009) to examine the impact pre-Crisis and post-Crisis, I find that Geographic Diversification (quadratic) NO LONGER has a significant impact.

Would it be appropriate for me to conclude that Geographic Diversification (quadratic) itself IS a significant predictor. However, Crisis (pre-post Crisis) makes no difference to its predictive power.

I am adding the results just for your reference. Thanks.

A. Impact of Geographic Diversification (Quadratic)
Code:
. xtreg ROA_win05 Ln_Revenue Ln_LTDTA CoAge TPSD Ind_GSD wGDPpc wCPI wDCF wExpgr wGDPgr wC
> ons c.l1.GSD##c.l1.GSD if NATION=="UNITED STATES" & FOREIGNSALESTOTALSALES5>10 & Mfg_Rat
> io==100 &FOREIGNSALESTOTALSALES >10 & Year_ < YearInactive , fe cluster(n_CUSIP)

Fixed-effects (within) regression               Number of obs     =        789
Group variable: n_CUSIP                         Number of groups  =         90

R-sq:                                           Obs per group:
     within  = 0.0273                                         min =          1
     between = 0.0034                                         avg =        8.8
     overall = 0.0011                                         max =         18

                                                F(11,89)          =          .
corr(u_i, Xb)  = -0.5283                        Prob > F          =          .

                                  (Std. Err. adjusted for 90 clusters in n_CUSIP)
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                |               Robust
      ROA_win05 |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
----------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     Ln_Revenue |   1.728391   1.265633     1.37   0.175    -.7863959    4.243178
       Ln_LTDTA |  -.7309066   .2667187    -2.74   0.007    -1.260871   -.2009423
          CoAge |  -.1666455   .1232228    -1.35   0.180    -.4114865    .0781955
           TPSD |  -.0494397   1.379651    -0.04   0.971    -2.790778    2.691898
Ind_GSD_by_Year |   1.182452   2.262421     0.52   0.603     -3.31293    5.677835
         wGDPpc |   .0000272   .0002483     0.11   0.913     -.000466    .0005205
           wCPI |  -.3168193   .2987043    -1.06   0.292    -.9103383    .2766997
           wDCF |   8.66e-13   1.34e-12     0.65   0.519    -1.79e-12    3.52e-12
         wExpgr |   .0950372   .1363352     0.70   0.488    -.1758579    .3659323
         wGDPgr |  -.3723475   .3451565    -1.08   0.284    -1.058166    .3134712
          wCons |  -3.36e-13   4.77e-13    -0.70   0.483    -1.28e-12    6.12e-13
                |
            GSD |
            L1. |   7.387182   3.322333     2.22   0.029     .7857782    13.98859
                |
  cL.GSD#cL.GSD |  -5.720092   2.565952    -2.23   0.028    -10.81858   -.6216003
                |
          _cons |  -20.93078   23.15702    -0.90   0.369    -66.94329    25.08173
----------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
        sigma_u |   19.79479
        sigma_e |  6.1509629
            rho |  .91194518   (fraction of variance due to u_i)
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
B. Impact of Geographic Diversification (Quadratic) + INTERACTION with CRISIS

Code:
. xtreg ROA_win05 Ln_Revenue Ln_LTDTA CoAge TPSD Ind_GSD wGDPpc wCPI wDCF wExpgr wGDPgr wC
> ons c.l1.GSD##c.l1.GSD##i.Crisis if NATION=="UNITED STATES" & FOREIGNSALESTOTALSALES5>10
>  & Mfg_Ratio==100 &FOREIGNSALESTOTALSALES >10 & Year_ < YearInactive & Year_ !=2007 & Ye
> ar_ !=2008 & Year_ !=2009, fe cluster(n_CUSIP)

Fixed-effects (within) regression               Number of obs     =        635
Group variable: n_CUSIP                         Number of groups  =         87

R-sq:                                           Obs per group:
     within  = 0.0513                                         min =          1
     between = 0.0053                                         avg =        7.3
     overall = 0.0000                                         max =         15

                                                F(14,86)          =          .
corr(u_i, Xb)  = -0.5771                        Prob > F          =          .

                                       (Std. Err. adjusted for 87 clusters in n_CUSIP)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                     |               Robust
           ROA_win05 |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
          Ln_Revenue |   2.069123   1.408599     1.47   0.146    -.7310791    4.869325
            Ln_LTDTA |  -.5427035   .3154488    -1.72   0.089    -1.169795     .084388
               CoAge |  -.1962319     .17543    -1.12   0.266    -.5449752    .1525113
                TPSD |  -.1994187   1.279324    -0.16   0.876     -2.74263    2.343792
     Ind_GSD_by_Year |   2.665089   2.389298     1.12   0.268    -2.084678    7.414857
              wGDPpc |   .0001957   .0002514     0.78   0.438    -.0003041    .0006956
                wCPI |   .5417431   .3146595     1.72   0.089    -.0837794    1.167266
                wDCF |   1.36e-13   1.65e-12     0.08   0.934    -3.14e-12    3.41e-12
              wExpgr |  -.0629232   .1487029    -0.42   0.673    -.3585348    .2326883
              wGDPgr |   .1220212   .4301731     0.28   0.777    -.7331345     .977177
               wCons |   7.66e-15   5.85e-13     0.01   0.990    -1.15e-12    1.17e-12
                     |
                 GSD |
                 L1. |   11.83602   6.352277     1.86   0.066    -.7918874    24.46393
                     |
       cL.GSD#cL.GSD |  -7.955007   5.480996    -1.45   0.150    -18.85087    2.940853
                     |
            1.Crisis |   3.993319   2.642572     1.51   0.134    -1.259941    9.246578
                     |
       Crisis#cL.GSD |
                  1  |  -4.968958   8.793173    -0.57   0.573    -22.44921    12.51129
                     |
Crisis#cL.GSD#cL.GSD |
                  1  |   1.985325    7.40009     0.27   0.789    -12.72557    16.69622
                     |
               _cons |   -37.6528   27.47821    -1.37   0.174    -92.27768    16.97208
---------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
             sigma_u |   18.71923
             sigma_e |  5.5148036
                 rho |  .92013852   (fraction of variance due to u_i)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------