Im currently writing my thesis and got advised to compare In-sample vs Out-of-sample prediction. Where R2 out of sample is defined as:
Array
My data set is for 1764 observations (months)
Code:
* Example generated by -dataex-. To install: ssc install dataex
dataex return t, count(30)
clear
input double return float t
.01242389 1
.02019115 2
.02964644 3
.03405454 4
.02848361 5
-.01542547 6
-.00863808 7
.01915629 8
.01136751 9
-.05886838 10
.03742423 11
.0257288 12
.02951672 13
.00101633 14
.04072984 15
.03142682 16
-.00213872 17
-.00795212 18
-.00034236 19
-.00761387 20
-.01335902 21
.01832136 22
-.00212152 23
.03346823 24
.01082923 25
.01575765 26
-.01307993 27
-.00878622 28
.01496919 29
-.01535528 30
end
Code:
gen t=_n tsset t gen segment = 1 replace segment = 0 if t<883 reg return L.return if segment ==0 predict forecast if segment == 1 gen returns = return if segment == 1 reg return forecast
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