I'm exploiting a rotating panel with 6115 observations and 2 time periods to inquiry about the households propensity for financial planning. The dependent variable is "financial planning (having_fin_plan)" and the core independent variable is "financial literacy (Know_01)". To address the reverse causality problem, measurement errors and correlation between financial literacy and the errors I regress a two-stage least squares model. I instrument financial literacy with four instrumental variables which match the endogeneity test, over-identification test and weak correlation test. The problem in the estimated model is that financial literacy (Know_01) has a negative coefficient which seems counterintuitive. Indeed, I would expect that financial literacy was upward or downward estimated compared to the pooled OLS, in line with the household finance literature. Why is it negative? Below I'll show you the code and output, what I'm missing?
Code:
ivreg having_fin_plan male edu_univ property_01 rent_to_buy age employee selfemployment retired married_01 single_01 /// family_comp high_financial_wealth income_1 income_2 income_3 income_4 savers investors budget_always_respected Bank_mortgage_for_house Bank_mortgage_for_goods /// Debt_vs_Relatives_for_house Debt_vs_Relatives_for_goods trust_fin_01 risk_av01 ansia01 ovc_dummy /// (know_01 = fin_lit_parents_very_high procrastination01 score_mism self_efficacy01 ), first
First-stage regressions | |||
Source SS | df MS Number of obs = | 6,115 | |
F(30, 6084) = | 110.94 | ||
Model 296.247241 | 30 9.87490803 Prob > F = | 0.0000 | |
Residual 541.5296 | 6,084 .08900881 R-squared = | 0.3536 | |
Adj R-squared = | 0.3504 | ||
Total 837.776841 | 6,114 .13702598 Root MSE = | .29834 | |
know_01 | Coef. Std. Err. t P>t | [95% Conf. | Interval] |
male | .0168844 .0116729 1.45 0.148 | -.0059986 | .0397674 |
edu_univ | .085349 .0101787 8.39 0.000 | .0653951 | .1053028 |
property_01 | .030976 .0099083 3.13 0.002 | .0115523 | .0503998 |
rent_to_buy | -.1683492 .0283214 -5.94 0.000 | -.2238691 | -.1128293 |
age | .0285246 .0043348 6.58 0.000 | .0200268 | .0370224 |
employee | -.0053213 .0150374 -0.35 0.723 | -.0348 | .0241574 |
selfemployment | .0301084 .0171975 1.75 0.080 | -.0036047 | .0638215 |
retired | -.0394019 .0172869 -2.28 0.023 | -.0732904 | -.0055135 |
married_01 | -.0226717 .0109923 -2.06 0.039 | -.0442206 | -.0011229 |
single_01 | .0184531 .0152224 1.21 0.225 | -.0113881 | .0482943 |
family_comp | -.0204504 .0036722 -5.57 0.000 | -.0276492 | -.0132516 |
high_financial_wealth | .1340889 .0100631 13.32 0.000 | .1143618 | .1538161 |
income_1 | -.1652771 .0277103 -5.96 0.000 | -.2195991 | -.1109552 |
income_2 | -.0440917 .0262445 -1.68 0.093 | -.0955402 | .0073569 |
income_3 | .0313992 .0279559 1.12 0.261 | -.0234042 | .0862026 |
savers | .0275331 .0100178 2.75 0.006 | .0078947 | .0471715 |
investors | .0425231 .0100509 4.23 0.000 | .0228197 | .0622265 |
budget_always_respected | .0587958 .0093423 6.29 0.000 | .0404815 | .07711 |
Bank_mortgage_for_house | .0716105 .0095376 7.51 0.000 | .0529135 | .0903076 |
Bank_mortgage_for_goods | .0975432 .0094648 10.31 0.000 | .0789889 | .1160975 |
Debt_vs_Relatives_for_house | .0218174 .0188575 1.16 0.247 | -.01515 | .0587848 |
Debt_vs_Relatives_for_goods | -.0508886 .0195532 -2.60 0.009 | -.0892199 | -.0125574 |
trust_fin_01 | .0453005 .0079837 5.67 0.000 | .0296496 | .0609515 |
risk_av01 | .0267872 .0091672 2.92 0.003 | .0088163 | .0447581 |
ansia01 | -.2892181 .027524 -10.51 0.000 | -.3431748 | -.2352614 |
ovc_dummy | -.0176948 .0082522 -2.14 0.032 | -.033872 | -.0015176 |
fin_lit_parents_very_high | .0240546 .0344159 0.70 0.485 | -.0434127 | .0915219 |
procrastination01 | -.213733 .024521 -8.72 0.000 | -.2618029 | -.1656631 |
score_mism | -.1105298 .0036258 -30.48 0.000 | -.1176376 | -.1034219 |
self_efficacy01 | -.0569813 .0252711 -2.25 0.024 | -.1065216 | -.007441 |
_cons | .7031922 .0428844 16.40 0.000 | .6191237 | .7872608 |
Instrumental variables (2SLS) | regression | ||
Source SS | df MS Number of obs = | 6,115 | |
F(27, 6087) = | 44.65 | ||
Model 196.196325 | 27 7.26653054 Prob > F = | 0.0000 | |
Residual 1252.30834 | 6,087 .2057349 R-squared = | 0.1354 | |
Adj R-squared = | 0.1316 | ||
Total 1448.50466 | 6,114 .236916039 Root MSE = | .45358 | |
having_fin_plan | Coef. Std. Err. t P>t | [95% Conf. | Interval] |
know_01 | -.2017086 .0470621 -4.29 0.000 | -.2939669 | -.1094503 |
male | .0006796 .0177038 0.04 0.969 | -.034026 | .0353853 |
edu_univ | .055142 .0159639 3.45 0.001 | .0238471 | .0864369 |
property_01 | -.0130917 .0151052 -0.87 0.386 | -.0427034 | .0165199 |
rent_to_buy | .1597795 .0441939 3.62 0.000 | .0731438 | .2464152 |
age | .0157596 .0067115 2.35 0.019 | .0026027 | .0289165 |
employee | -.0115554 .0228601 -0.51 0.613 | -.0563693 | .0332584 |
selfemployment | .0129597 .0261764 0.50 0.621 | -.0383554 | .0642748 |
retired | -.0349907 .0263005 -1.33 0.183 | -.086549 | .0165675 |
married_01 | .0014361 .0167017 0.09 0.931 | -.0313052 | .0341773 |
single_01 | .0000588 .0231749 0.00 0.998 | -.0453722 | .0454898 |
family_comp | .000029 .0056854 0.01 0.996 | -.0111164 | .0111744 |
high_financial_wealth | .1271248 .0167759 7.58 0.000 | .0942381 | .1600116 |
income_1 | -.0687145 .0426131 -1.61 0.107 | -.1522512 | .0148222 |
income_2 | -.0039936 .0398652 -0.10 0.920 | -.0821435 | .0741564 |
income_3 | .043217 .0425109 1.02 0.309 | -.0401195 | .1265534 |
savers | .1254683 .0151701 8.27 0.000 | .0957295 | .1552071 |
investors | .2052635 .0153481 13.37 0.000 | .1751758 | .2353513 |
budget_always_respected | .1422106 .0142898 9.95 0.000 | .1141976 | .1702237 |
Bank_mortgage_for_house | .0640574 .0149921 4.27 0.000 | .0346676 | .0934471 |
Bank_mortgage_for_goods | .0983141 .0152916 6.43 0.000 | .0683371 | .128291 |
Debt_vs_Relatives_for_house | .1743292 .0286238 6.09 0.000 | .1182165 | .230442 |
Debt_vs_Relatives_for_goods | .1688118 .0297898 5.67 0.000 | .1104132 | .2272104 |
trust_fin_01 | .0642439 .012246 5.25 0.000 | .0402375 | .0882504 |
risk_av01 | -.0773862 .0139455 -5.55 0.000 | -.1047243 | -.0500481 |
ansia01 | -.1329287 .0401689 -3.31 0.001 | -.211674 | -.0541835 |
ovc_dummy | .0893044 .0125974 7.09 0.000 | .064609 | .1139998 |
_cons | .2623593 .0632222 4.15 0.000 | .1384214 | .3862972 |
0 Response to 2SLS regression
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