Hello everyone,

I'm trying to replicate output produced by the NY Federal Reserve, but am a bit confused as to how they're forecasting out of sample from a probit, and how to do so in Stata. They provide their data here. They're using a probit model and report "Probability of US Recession Predicted by Treasury Spread* Twelve Months Ahead (month averages)." There's example data below. I understand how to get predicted probabilities by using the predict command after running probit, but not the "Twelve Months Ahead ( month averages)." If anyone has any ideas how to interpret and reproduce those results I'd really appreciate it!

Code:
* Example generated by -dataex-. To install: ssc install dataex
clear
input int date double(tenyr threemon spread) byte nber_rec
-335 4.02 2.82 1.1403059139902267 0
-307 3.96  2.7 1.2036881717723462 0
-276 3.99  2.8 1.1308748587222905 0
-246 4.12 2.95  1.106556698491949 0
-215 4.31 2.84 1.4097348744710638 0
-185 4.34 3.21  1.058792401343232 0
-154  4.4  3.2  1.129097589389731 0
-123 4.43 3.38  .9735238070156065 0
 -93 4.68 4.04  .5416269031857555 0
 -62 4.53 4.05 .38127745292431303 0
 -32 4.53 4.15  .2777538680070233 0
  -1 4.69 4.49 .08537770490126739 0
  30 4.72 4.35 .26054794174274676 0
  59 4.49 3.96  .4344034788230182 0
  90 4.25 3.31  .8657116249598373 0
 120 4.28 3.23   .978180449430587 0
 151 4.35 3.29  .9863319842434066 1
 181 4.15 2.46 1.6402267265277928 1
 212  3.9  2.3 1.5544186059507075 1
 243  3.8  2.3 1.4544186059507074 1
end
format %td date
Code:
probit nber_rec spread