Hello,
I am working on mwitch command of Stata. I work in Stata 15.
I ran the following:

. mswitch dr gcf, switch(gds) varswitch states(2) nolog vsquish

Performing EM optimization:

Performing gradient-based optimization:


Markov-switching dynamic regression

Sample: 1970 - 2016 No. of obs = 47
Number of states = 2 AIC = 4.4781
Unconditional probabilities: transition HQIC = 4.5966
SBIC = 4.7930
Log likelihood = -97.23547


gcf Coef. Std. Err. z P>z [95% Conf. Interval]

State1
gds .0924856 .1473673 0.63 0.530 -.1963491 .3813203
_cons 15.42887 3.11739 4.95 0.000 9.318895 21.53884

State2
gds .736845 .0485931 15.16 0.000 .6416043 .8320856
_cons 6.129055 1.193445 5.14 0.000 3.789946 8.468164

sigma1 2.250846 .3264654 1.693895 2.990922

sigma2 1.059222 .2000414 .7315295 1.533707

p11 .9288938 .0537234 .7262418 .9846927

p21 .0772527 .0579521 .0167304 .2917522



. matrix list e(b)

e(b)[1,8]
State1: State1: State2: State2: lnsigma1: lnsigma2: p11: p21:
gds _cons gds _cons _cons _cons _cons _cons
y1 .09248559 15.428868 .73684496 6.1290551 .8113061 .05753501 -2.5698196 2.4802733

. matrix list e(uncprob)
e(uncprob)[1,2]
State1 State2
r1 .52071497 .47928503

I want to generate transition probabilities p11 and p21 from the above table. When i try to recover p11 and p21 by running the following code:
gen p11=[p11]_cons

It is generating the value as -2.5698196, NOT .9288938, as it is reported in Stata's output
Similarly, I want to export results into excel using outreg2. When I'm exporting, p11 and p21 are stored as (-2.5698196 2.4802733), not as (.9288938, .0772527). Do not know why.

Observations:
1. Transition probabilities reported in the result (shaded in blue) do not match with probabilities stored in matrix (shaded in red). Why is the difference?
2. Further, the unconditional probabilities do not match with the results of matrix list e(uncprob) (shaded in purple)


Any help would be greatly appreciated.