I am doing ex-ante out of sample forecasting for rail freight. Based on the results of the ADF Test and AIC, I am predicting the freight value for rail for years 2020-2030 based on past values from 2007-2019. However, whenever, I use dynamic in predict, I get the error that the option dynamic is not allowed in the command.
I have run the following commands:
gen t=_n
tsset t
gen RailFreightDiff = d.RailFreight
dfuller RailFreightDiff, drift regress lags(1)
varsoc RailFreightDiff
set obs 24; I tried set obs '=_N=11' command but got the error, observation number out of range.
gen RailLag1 = RailFreightDiff[_n-1]
gen RailLag2 = RailFreightDiff[_n-2]
reg RailFreightDiff RailLag1 RailLag2, r
predict Rail, dynamic{24}
The sample of the data set using dataex:
Code:
* Example generated by -dataex-. To install: ssc install dataex clear input int year long railfreight float t long RailFreightDiff float(RailLag1 RailLag2) 2007 5215858 1 . . . 2008 5517042 2 301185 . . 2009 6001461 3 484419 301185 . 2010 6258547 4 257086 484419 301185 2011 6676755 5 418208 257086 484419 2012 6492100 6 -184655 418208 257086 2013 6656881 7 164782 -184655 418208 2014 6812517 8 155636 164782 -184655 2015 6542970 9 -269548 155636 164782 2016 6205502 10 -337468 -269548 155636 2017 6934109 11 728608 -337468 -269548 2018 7389954 12 455845 728608 -337468 2019 7081283 13 -308672 455845 728608 end
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