After finding that my variables were stationary in the first difference and that there is presence of cointegration I estimated an ARDL error correction model as shown below. I have also shown the bounds test which shows a co integrating relationship I believe.
Code:
ardl lnrealCURPC lngdppercapita interestrate infld directtaxratiod, lag(. . . . .) m
> axlag(3 3 3 3 3) aic ec
ARDL(2,0,0,0,3) regression
Sample: 2002q3 - 2018q4 Number of obs = 66
R-squared = 0.3891
Adj R-squared = 0.2909
Log likelihood = 108.59474 Root MSE = 0.0507
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
D.lnrealCURPC | Coef. Std. Err. t P>|t| [95% Conf. Interval]
----------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
ADJ |
lnrealCURPC |
L1. | -.6820688 .1177544 -5.79 0.000 -.9179592 -.4461783
----------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
LR |
lngdppercapita | 1.043669 .0353481 29.53 0.000 .972858 1.11448
interestrate | .0020574 .0098193 0.21 0.835 -.017613 .0217279
infld | -.6836962 .5265204 -1.30 0.199 -1.738443 .3710509
directtaxratiod | -33.38411 10.4536 -3.19 0.002 -54.32518 -12.44304
----------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
SR |
lnrealCURPC |
LD. | .4115564 .1239233 3.32 0.002 .1633082 .6598047
|
directtaxratiod |
D1. | 8.462358 13.72885 0.62 0.540 -19.03983 35.96455
LD. | 11.06642 17.31682 0.64 0.525 -23.62333 45.75618
L2D. | 40.31898 17.03499 2.37 0.021 6.193793 74.44416
|
_cons | -.9017556 .2910219 -3.10 0.003 -1.484742 -.3187687
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------Code:
estat ectest
Pesaran, Shin, and Smith (2001) bounds test
H0: no level relationship F = 6.804
Case 3 t = -5.792
Finite sample (4 variables, 66 observations, 4 short-run coefficients)
Kripfganz and Schneider (2018) critical values and approximate p-values
| 10% | 5% | 1% | p-value
| I(0) I(1) | I(0) I(1) | I(0) I(1) | I(0) I(1)
---+------------------+------------------+------------------+-----------------
F | 2.531 3.695 | 3.016 4.297 | 4.113 5.637 | 0.000 0.002
t | -2.539 -3.639 | -2.865 -4.009 | -3.512 -4.728 | 0.000 0.001
do not reject H0 if
both F and t are closer to zero than critical values for I(0) variables
(if p-values > desired level for I(0) variables)
reject H0 if
both F and t are more extreme than critical values for I(1) variables
(if p-values < desired level for I(1) variables)Thanks.
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