In the following simplified example, I want to estimate a linear dynamic panel data model with 2 lags of the dependent variable instrumented by 2 lags of the first-differenced dependent variable.
(Using first differences as instruments is a standard procedure as part of a system GMM estimator in dynamic panel models, where it is assumed that the levels are correlated with the unobserved unit-specific effects, but the first differences are not.)
Code:
. webuse abdata, clear . ivregress 2sls n (L.n L2.n = DL.n DL2.n) note: LD.n dropped due to collinearity equation not identified; must have at least as many instruments not in the regression as there are instrumented variables r(481);
Yet, if you manually run the first-stage regressions, there is no evidence of any collinearity problem:
Code:
. regress L.n DL.n DL2.n Source | SS df MS Number of obs = 611 -------------+---------------------------------- F(2, 608) = 5.50 Model | 19.4241409 2 9.71207047 Prob > F = 0.0043 Residual | 1074.20669 608 1.76678733 R-squared = 0.0178 -------------+---------------------------------- Adj R-squared = 0.0145 Total | 1093.63084 610 1.79283744 Root MSE = 1.3292 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ L.n | Coef. Std. Err. t P>|t| [95% Conf. Interval] -------------+---------------------------------------------------------------- n | LD. | .7793204 .4007435 1.94 0.052 -.0076892 1.56633 L2D. | .9261032 .4324795 2.14 0.033 .0767682 1.775438 | _cons | 1.101659 .0575023 19.16 0.000 .9887318 1.214586 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ . regress L2.n DL.n DL2.n Source | SS df MS Number of obs = 611 -------------+---------------------------------- F(2, 608) = 2.29 Model | 8.10427021 2 4.05213511 Prob > F = 0.1018 Residual | 1074.20669 608 1.76678733 R-squared = 0.0075 -------------+---------------------------------- Adj R-squared = 0.0042 Total | 1082.31096 610 1.77428027 Root MSE = 1.3292 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ L2.n | Coef. Std. Err. t P>|t| [95% Conf. Interval] -------------+---------------------------------------------------------------- n | LD. | -.2206796 .4007435 -0.55 0.582 -1.007689 .5663299 L2D. | .9261032 .4324795 2.14 0.033 .0767682 1.775438 | _cons | 1.101659 .0575023 19.16 0.000 .9887318 1.214586 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Code:
. xtdpdgmm n L.n L2.n, iv(DL.n DL2.n) note: standard errors may not be valid Generalized method of moments estimation Fitting full model: Step 1 f(b) = 1.545e-27 Group variable: id Number of obs = 751 Time variable: year Number of groups = 140 Moment conditions: linear = 3 Obs per group: min = 5 nonlinear = 0 avg = 5.364286 total = 3 max = 7 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ n | Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval] -------------+---------------------------------------------------------------- n | L1. | 1.25092 .0366347 34.15 0.000 1.179117 1.322722 L2. | -.2253948 .050786 -4.44 0.000 -.3249334 -.1258561 | _cons | -.0743238 .0497764 -1.49 0.135 -.1718837 .0232362 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Instruments corresponding to the linear moment conditions: 1, model(level): LD.n L2D.n 2, model(level): _cons
There is a perfect linear relationship between the two (!) endogenous variables and the instruments: L.n - L2.n = DL.n.
However, I would argue that it should not be of concern that the instrument is collinear with a combination of endogenous regressors. There should only be a concern if there is collinearity among the instruments themselves (or among the regressors themselves), or if any single endogenous regressor is perfectly predicted by one or more of the instruments. The latter is not the case as we could see above in the first-stage regressions.
Hence, I would call this a bug in ivregress.
I am already in private conversation with KitBaum and Mark Schaffer about the same problem in ivreg2, but I want to invite others on Statalist to add your opinion to the discussion before I send an e-mail to StataCorp Tech Support.
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