Dear Forum Members,

I came a cross a quite simple example of Bayesian analysis (from the book Think Bayes, written by Allen Downeyfor Python users) which can be done directly, I mean, just by using the Bayes' theorem.

In short, there are 2 baskets with cookies. In basket 1, 30 vanilla cookies and 10 chocolate cookies. In basket 2, 20 vanilla cookies and 20 chocolate cookies.

Below, I generate a dataset accordingly:

Code:
input basket str20 cookie freq
1 vanilla 30
1 chocolate 10
2 vanilla 20
2 chocolate 20
end
expand freq
encode cookie, gen(vanilla)
drop freq
The question is: What is the probability of having the basket 1 if I've got a vanilla cookie?

Using the Bayes formula, we get: Posterior = (3/4 *1/2)/ (50/80) = 0.35/0.625 = 0.56 = 56%

That said, I wish to perform the estimation in Stata.

I tryed hard with - bayesmh -, to no avail so far.

Thank you in advance for any advice.